Two more signs of autumn came last week. The sandhill cranes made their noisy migration south, and we had the first confirmed leak of a flattering poll on behalf of a candidate for election next year.

Given the poll was performed by Glen Bolger, there is little reason to doubt the validity of its findings. The survey showed Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard as the front-runner for the Republican nomination for governor in 2010.

That said, it should be noted the Daugaard campaign paid for the poll to be conducted, and the actual questions weren’t leaked with the analysis memo.

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It was also the first polling done for his campaign. So we don’t have any indication whether he is gaining, falling or on a plateau, seven months before the June primary.

The poll of 400 likely Republican-primary voters showed Daugaard favored by 26 percent, followed by Senate Republican leader Dave Knudson at 9 percent, Scott Munsterman 6 percent and Ken Knuppe 3 percent.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 22-23 and has a margin of possible error of plus or minus 4.9 percent in 95 of 100 cases.

Republican primaries for governor have long been hard-fought in South Dakota. Back in the 1986 contest, the front-running campaign of Clint Roberts released polling numbers showing him as the early favorite. Dwight Adams, the campaign manager for George S. Mickelson, took delight each time the four-candidate race kept tightening.

In the end, Mickelson won the primary and then defeated Democrat Lars Herseth that November in a historic battle between sons of former governors.

The 1994 primary was truly rough between former Gov. Bill Janklow and sitting Gov. Walter Dale Miller, who was lieutenant governor when the 1993 plane crash took Mickelson’s life.

But their fight, won by Janklow, was polite in comparison to the 2002 demolition derby between Attorney General Mark Barnett and former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby.

While Barnett, the presumed front-runner, and challenger Kirby carved up each other, they also came to a near stand-still in the polls. Some late help allowed the third candidate, underdog Mike Rounds, to slip past them, capture a huge chunk of the remaining undecided voters, and win the nomination.

That history is why it’s good to read the Daugaard polling memo only for what it says and nothing more.

The survey found that Republican primary voters are highly accepting of Gov. Rounds, with image ratings of 83 percent favorable and 8 percent unfavorable.

As for South Dakota’s condition generally, 69 percent said the state is headed in the right direction while 22 percent said it’s on the wrong track.

One big assumption in the polling memo gives pause, however. The assumption is that a Rounds endorsement will be of significant help to Daugaard.

This assumption is untested in modern times in South Dakota. Rounds is the first governor in at least 30 years to openly support a candidate to succeed him in the Republican primary election.

Looking further at the numbers, the race for the Republican nomination clearly remains wide open. Every one of the four men seeking the nomination remains a blank slate among two-thirds of the likely voters who were polled.

In a bit of a surprise, Knudson was better known than Daugaard. Knudson had 70 percent name identification, Daugaard 58 percent.

And as one further indication of how wide-open this race remains, only 48 percent of the 400 Republicans surveyed had heard of both Knudson and Daugaard.

It’s not surprising then that two-thirds of people in the survey didn’t favor a candidate yet and didn’t have strong impressions of the candidates.

For Knudson, 26 percent said they had a favorable impression and 7 percent said unfavorable. For Daugaard, favorable was 32 percent favorable and 1 percent unfavorable.

The two other Republicans seeking the nomination weren’t quite as well known. Scott Munsterman had 45 percent name ID with 10 percent favorable and 3 percent unfavorable. Ken Knuppe’s name ID was 32 percent with 8 percent favorable and 3 percent unfavorable.

The polling memo made no mention of the Republican winner’s likely November opponent, Senate Democratic leader Scott Heidepriem.

Heidepriem and Knudson are lawyers who live in Sioux Falls. Daugaard is a lawyer who works in Sioux Falls as chief executive for Children’s Home Society and lives in rural Garretson.

Munsterman is a chiropractor who lives in Brookings, where he was mayor. Knuppe is a rancher in the Buffalo Gap area who is a past president of the South Dakota Stockgrowers Association.

The great unknown for all five men is what the conditions will be in South Dakota next spring and next fall. The 2010 legislative session, which runs January through March, will be a crucial time, as the depths of state government’s financial difficulties become more apparent.

From Heidepriem we will hear the call for change. From Munsterman we will hear both change and fiscal restraint. From Knudson we will hear new ideas and a call for leadership. From Knuppe we will hear pull back. From Daugaard we will hear, hold steady and wait out the storm.

And from Rounds we will hear Daugaard. We are about to live in very interesting times.