SD races in 2010 part of national poll to gauge Democrats’ chances

By David Montgomery
Capital Journal staff
Published/Last Modified on Friday, Dec 18, 2009 - 02:19:09 am CST

PIERRE — Six months away from the gubernatorial primaries, a majority of South Dakota voters have yet to form an opinion about any of the candidates seeking to run the state, a new poll shows.

A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, a private polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party, found Democratic Sen. Scott Heidepriem trailing all four Republican candidates for governor in a race PPP communications director Tom Jensen said is wide open.

“It’s pretty interesting that none of the candidates had even 50-percent name recognition,” Jensen said.

Graphic by David Montgomery | Capital Journal
A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows that a majority of South Dakota voters have yet to form an opinion about the gubernatorial candidates.
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In head-to-head matchups, the percentages showed Heidepriem trailing Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard 42-29, Sen. Dave Knudson 39-29, ex-Brookings mayor Scott Munsterman 35-30 and rancher Ken Knuppe 32-30.

The polling firm contacted 702 South Dakota voters between Dec. 10 and Dec. 13. The margin of error in the automated poll was plus or minus 3.7 percent.

Jensen said PPP polled South Dakota as part of a series looking at Democratic members of Congress in districts won by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the 2008 presidential election.

“We’re using these districts to gauge just how bad it’s going to be for Democrats next year,” Jensen said.

“(Heidepriem) is in a range where if he ran a really good campaign and voters decided they really liked him, he could win,” Jensen said. “But the odds are certainly stacked against him.”

A second Democrat, ex-legislator Ron Volesky, is also running for governor. Jensen said his company just asked about Heidepriem because “it looks like he’s certainly the overwhelming favorite for the nomination.”

Candidates on both sides said the poll is good news.

“It looks to me like it’s very close,” Heidepriem said. “That’s based on very little information voters have received about any candidate.”

“For me it’s clear — it’s an open race on the Republican side,” said Munsterman. “It’s interesting to note that any of the Republican candidates, at least today, appear to have an edge of a potential Democratic candidate in the general (election).”

The poll also found challenges for Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin as she seeks election to a fourth full term. Number showed less than half of South Dakota voters approve of Herseth Sandlin’s job performance and she leads Republican Secretary of State Chris Nelson by only 7 points with 15 percent of voters still undecided.

Against a second Republican, Rep. Blake Curd, Herseth Sandlin leads 52-31.

Herseth Sandlin said she’s not concerned about polling numbers.

“I’ve always believed that if I work hard on behalf of the people I represent, then the politics of the next campaign will take care of themselves,” she said.

Nelson said voters will turn his way.

“We need to be going a different direction,” he said.

Republican Sen. John Thune, running for reelection in 2010 without any Democratic opponent so far, has a 57 percent approval rating versus 35 percent disapproving.

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