My story on the PPP polls

By David Montgomery
Published/Last Modified on Monday, Dec 21, 2009 - 04:44:53 pm CST

PIERRE — Six months away from the gubernatorial primaries, a majority of South Dakota voters have yet to form an opinion about any of the candidates seeking to run the state, a new poll finds.

A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, a private polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party, last week found Democratic Sen. Scott Heidepriem trailing all four Republican candidates for governor in a race PPP communications director Tom Jensen said is wide open.

"It’s pretty interesting that none of the candidates had even 50 percent name recognition," Jensen said. "You would think that being in office as something like lieutenant governor people would know who you are, but clearly that’s not the case."


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In head-to-head matchups, Heidepriem trailed Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard 42-29, Sen. Dave Knudson 39-29, ex-Brookings mayor Scott Munsterman 35-30 and rancher Ken Knuppe 32-30.

"It’s not like (Heidepriem) is so far behind that it would be impossible for him to win," Jensen said. "He’s in a range where if he ran a really good campaign and voters decided they really liked him he could win. But the odds are certainly stacked against him. When you have a Republican state, in what’s looking like a Republican year, and you have a popular outgoing Republican governor, those three conditions are certainly going to make it an uphill battle for Heidepriem."

A second Democrat, ex-legislator Ron Volesky, is also running for governor. Jensen said his company just asked about Heidepriem because "it looks like he’s certainly the overwhelming favorite for the nomination."

Candidates on both sides said the poll is good news.

"It looks to me like it’s very close," Heidepriem said. "That’s based on very little information voters have received about any candidate. It seems like voters are open to change."

"For me it’s clear — it’s an open race on the Republican side," said Munsterman. "It’s interesting to note that any of the Republican candidates, at least today, appear to have an edge of a potential Democratic candidate in the general (election)."

The poll also found challenges for Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin as she seeks election to a fourth full term. Less than half of South Dakota voters approve of Herseth Sandlin’s job performance and she leads Republican Secretary of State Chris Nelson by only 7 points with 15 percent of voters still undecided.

Against a second Republican, Rep. Blake Curd, Herseth Sandlin leads 52-31.

Herseth Sandlin said she’s not concerned about polling numbers.

"I’ve always believed that if I work hard on behalf of the people I represent then the politics of the next campaign will take care of themselves," she said. "I anticipate that as we head into next year we’ll continue to have to make some hard decisions. Whether people agree or disagree with the votes, I think they agree I’m trying to do right by South Dakota."

Nelson said the poll shows voters turning away from Herseth Sandlin — and hopes they turn to him.

"There has certainly been a shift in South Dakota in the view of the incumbent representative," Nelson said. "We need to be going a different direction. I appears that they’re finding my message to be one that’s acceptable."

Republican Sen. John Thune, running for reelection in 2010 without any Democratic opponent so far, has a 57 percent approval rating versus 35 percent disapproving. Despite — or perhaps because of — his popularity, 55 percent of voters said they didn’t want him to run for President in 2012.

"I don’t think people are opposed to Thune running because they dislike him," Jensen said. "I think they’re opposed because good senators are hard to come by and they’d rather he keep representing them in the Senate."

PPP contacted 702 South Dakota voters between Dec. 10 and Dec. 13. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent. The party affiliation, race and gender breakdowns of survey respondents correspond to actual figures within the margin of error.


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