D.C. Defenders vs. St. Louis Battlehawks Prediction and Preview (XFL Football)

Related: Week 5 Picks for Every XFL Game

And if the grueling game these teams put each other through in Week 3 is any indication of what to expect, we'll witness another hard-hitting contest on Saturday. Here's how this one breaks down.

D.C. (4-0) at St. Louis (3-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, March 18 at 7 p.m. ET

Where: The Dome at America's Center (St. Louis)

TV: FX

Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Spread: Defenders -2

|Tickets: As low as $41 on SITickets.com* 

Three Things to Watch

1. Firepower on offense

D.C. enter this game third in the league in total offense (305.2 ypg), powered by the No. 1 rushing attack (155.5 ypg). The ground game is largely responsible for the No. 2 scoring offense (26.5 ppg), especially considering the Defenders are sixth when it comes to throwing the ball (149.8 ypg). D.C. has used two quarterbacks, but they have distinct roles. Jordan Ta'amu enters the week sixth in the league in passing (568 yards) while D'Eriq King leads all players in rushing touchdowns (four). The problem is that while King only has thrown for 59 yards, he does have two touchdowns, which is one more than Ta'amu, who has attempted 76 more passes.

Instead, the Defenders have done most of their damage on the ground. Running back Abram Smith is second in rushing with 214 yards with Ta'amu right behind on the league leaderboard at 185 on the ground. Additionally, Ryquell Armstead is at No. 5 with 156 rushing yards. D.C. also has scored seven times on the ground, the most of any team in the league, with King responsible for more than half of those. If there was a concern with the run-heavy attack, it's the seven lost fumbles the Defenders have had, with Ta'amu accounting for three of those.

On the other side is a St. Louis offense that has leaned heavily on the arm of quarterback AJ McCarron. He's third in both passing yards (850) and completions (86) and second in touchdown passes (nine). Pass protection has been an issue at times, with the Battlehawks allowing the second-most sacks (12) thus far, but St. Louis still ranks third in scoring offense (22.5 ppg). This unit is just fifth in total yards per game (282.0) with both the aerial (196.5 ypg) and rushing (85.5 ypg) production checking in at fourth on the leaderboard.

Running back Brian Hill is averaging a respectable five yards per carry and ranks fourth overall in rushing with 176 yards, but he missed one game because of injury and has scored just once on the ground. Wide receiver Hakeem Butler has found the end zone four times, tying him for the league lead, and he's fourth in receptions (21).

2. Can either team get defensive?

Slowing down two of the XFL's most productive offenses will fall to a pair of defenses that currently reside at the opposite end of the statistical leaderboards. D.C. is sixth in yards allowed per game (299.5) with mirror images when it comes to defending the pass (232.2 ypg, last) compared to stopping the run (67.2 ypg, first). The Defenders have done a good job of limiting damage on the scoreboard (17.5 ppg) thanks in part to their ground-oriented offense, which can eat up a lot of clock, as well as an ability to create turnovers. This defense is living up to its name by leading the league in interceptions (five) and ranking second in sacks (12). D.C. has returned two of those picks for touchdowns and has also recovered five fumbles.

St. Louis also has thrived when it comes to taking the ball away, leading the way in fumble recoveries (eight) and ranking second in interceptions (four). That has been necessary because the Battlehawks are giving up 301.2 yards (sixth) and nearly 20 points per game (19.5, seventh). St. Louis also ranks second to last against the run (105.2 ypg), which does not bode well going into this matchup against D.C. On the flip side, the Defenders' own issue with pass defense could make things easier for the Battlehawks when they have the ball. Either way, the onus will be on one of these defenses to step up and make plays or this could be a high-scoring affair.

3. What to expect in Round 2

These teams first met two weeks ago. The Defenders won 34-28 at home in what still stands as the highest-scoring game of the season. It was an entertaining, back-and-forth affair that was marred by a brawl in the final seconds. The melee resulted in three players being suspended.

Both teams moved the ball at will, combining for 632 yards of offense. McCarron tossed four touchdown passes for St. Louis but also threw two picks while the Defenders showed more balance on offense (210 yards passing, 136 rushing). However, the biggest play was a 41-yard interception Michael Joseph returned for a touchdown that staked D.C. to an early 14-0 lead it would never relinquish. The Defenders did lose three fumbles, but the pick-six and three other turnovers proved to be too costly for the Battlehawks to overcome. It will be interesting to see if either team alters its game plan that much or if familiarity produces different results, on either side of the ball.

Final Analysis

Over 38,000 fans showed up for the Battlehawks' home opener against Arlington last weekend. Expect similar attendance for this week's game. And while St. Louis has proven since 2020 that home-field advantage is a major factor, it likely won't be enough this week. Unless the Battlehawks can stop the Defenders' ground attack and force them to become a pure passing team, D.C. stays unbeaten and expands its lead in the XFL North.

Prediction: Defenders 24, Battlehawks 21

— Written by Gabe Salgado, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. He's also written for NBC, Fox, The Sporting News, The Sports Journal, The Undefeated and Complex. He can also be heard on WGN Radio. Follow him on Twitter @GabeSalgado82.

*Price as of publication.