Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Target These Five Pitchers in Drafts

Let’s dig in.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Nick Lodolo (CIN) 

Teammate Hunter Greene is getting more attention, but Lodolo may be the better value at an ADP of 128. Lodolo struck out 11.49 batters per nine in his rookie season, while Greene struck out 11.75. Lodolo’s xERA was 3.97 and he slightly outperformed that with a 3.66 in 2022. Greene’s xERA was 4.00 but he put up a 4.44. These two could end up looking nearly identical in the stat sheets, and Greene’s control issues have me pausing and waiting for the value on Lodolo two rounds later. Neither pitcher is going to log a lot of wins with a dreadful Reds team, so consider the lefty as a back end starter at a nice value.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Jeffrey Springs (TB) 

The lefty hurler will be moving into a starting role for the Rays after a breakout season in 2022. Springs started 25 times last season with the rest of his appearances coming in relief, and he notched nine wins and was able to pitch 135 innings. Of course, there are questions about how much volume he will be able to sustain not just because he was a reliever, but also because he pitches for the Rays who famously use their starters as “openers,” but Spring maintained elite ratios over 135 innings last season and he just signed a four-year, $31 million contract. Springs’s chase rate is in the 96% percentile of the league, and his changeup has a 38.1% whiff rate. Springs finished 2022 with a 2.46 ERA, nine wins, and an impressive 82.3% strand rate. He’s currently coming off the board at pick 159.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Merrill Kelly (ARI) 

 Kelly is another starter for a team not expected to log a lot of wins, but maybe we aren’t giving the D-backs enough credit. We certainly aren’t giving Kelly enough credit as he was one of only eight pitchers last season to log 200 innings pitched, and he did it with a 3.37 ERA and 13 wins. Those wins were tied with Gerrit Cole and the ERA was superior. Of course, Kelly is not a high K pitcher like Cole, but he makes up for it with volume. Kelly’s 177 K in 2022 were just behind Alek Manoah and ahead of Pablo Lopez, Logan Gilbert, and Max Fried- all pitchers who are going well ahead of Kelly at an ADP of 215.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Kenta Maeda (MIN) 

Ok, now we are really digging deep. Maeda returns this year after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery, but so far he has looked good in Spring Training. Maeda pitched in three Spring Training games and he has only allowed one earned run across 5 ⅔ innings pitched. What’s more impressive is that he allowed two innings of no-run ball vs. the Rays despite the fact that his pitch com allowed the Rays’ catcher to hear every pitch that was called. At an ADP of 310, there’s nothing to lose with this pick in a deeper league.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Matthew Boyd (MIN) 

I know, I know. We have gotten excited about Matthew Boyd before and he’s disappointed us. But at an ADP of 427, you really have zero to lose. Boyd will return to the starting rotation this year for the Tigers after spending an injury-plagued year working in relief for the Mariners, and he looks right at home so far. Boyd shut out the Twins across four innings last Sunday while striking out six. He now has 17K and just two walks across nine Spring Training innings pitched, and an ERA of only 2.00. Why not?