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As election nears, Trump leads Biden by 11 points in South Dakota

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A new poll shows President Donald Trump leads Democrat Joe Biden in the race for South Dakota's 3 Electoral College votes by 11 points. 

A new poll shows President Donald Trump leading Democrat Joe Biden in the race for South Dakota’s 3 Electoral College votes by 11 points.

Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy conducted the survey of 625 South Dakota voters last week. The specific question was: “If the 2020 election for president were held today, who would you vote for?”

The poll indicates the results as follows:

Trump — 51%

Biden — 40%

Other — 3%

Undecided — 6%

The election is set for Nov. 3. In 2016, Trump carried South Dakota by nearly 30 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The last Democratic Party presidential candidate to win South Dakota was President Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas in 1964.

Polling SpecificsThe survey further breaks down South Dakota’s candidate preferences by region, gender and age. For example, in the Sioux Falls metro area, Biden actually bests Trump in the survey by a count of 45% to 43%.

However, Trump generally dominates Biden everywhere in South Dakota that is not part of the Sioux Falls metro area. The president’s strongest region is listed as “West River.” In this region, Trump polls at 60%, while Biden earns only 34%.

Age-wise, South Dakotans at least age 50 favor Trump over Biden by a 17-point gap, 54-37.

Among those under age 50, the spread is considerably smaller at only 4 points, 48-44.

Finally, the poll shows that men in South Dakota prefer Trump over Biden by a count of 54-37. The difference, again, is much smaller among women, who are listed as supporting Trump over Biden by a spread of 48-43.

Electoral College PlaybookA candidate must take 270 Electoral College votes to win a majority. States considered “in play” for this year’s Electoral College include:

Texas — 38 electoral votes (Trump won by 9 points in 2016)

Florida — 29 electoral votes (Trump won by 1.2 points in 2016)

Pennsylvania — 20 electoral votes (Trump won by 0.7 points in 2016)

Ohio — 18 electoral votes (Trump won by 8 points in 2016)

Michigan — 16 electoral votes (Trump won by 0.3 points in 2016)

Georgia — 16 electoral votes (Trump won by 5 points in 2016)

North Carolina — 15 electoral votes (Trump won by 3.6 points in 2016)

Arizona — 11 electoral votes (Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016)

Wisconsin — 10 electoral votes (Trump won by 0.7 points in 2016)

Minnesota — 10 electoral votes (Clinton won by 1.5 points in 2016)

Iowa — 6 electoral votes (Trump won by 9.4 points in 2016)

New Hampshire — 4 electoral votes (Clinton won by 0.3 points in 2016)

Also, both Nebraska and Maine award their Electoral College votes by congressional district. Trump carried one vote from Maine in 2016, along with all five of Nebraska’s votes. These are the only two states that do not apply the winner-take-all method for Electoral College votes.

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