Old crop prices were unchanged to up 5 cents this week. Nearby prices have gained 10 to 50 cents depending on location in the past two weeks. Prices in general remain stable after some heavy producer selling led to price pressure at the crush plants earlier this spring. Last year at this same time, ample supplies, strong deliveries by producers and a large old crop inventory kept the pipeline full at the crush plants keeping a lid on prices.
That’s not the case this year as a smaller 2018 crop coupled with smaller beginning stocks has the industry using up stocks to meet demand. The latest trade aid payment package remains on the mind of traders. In order to qualify for the program payments producers must plant their acres with a qualifying crop. This requirement and the sluggish planting pace this spring in the Midwest has traders wondering how many acres will be switched from corn to soybean this year.
This has created additional volatility on the CBoT for soybean, meal and oil contracts since the program was announced. The market is also focusing on trade and exports, which have been bearish. USDA releases its next crop production report Tuesday. Analysts expect the agency to show a slight decline in 2019 soybean production potential, and expect slightly higher 2019/20 ending stocks, however, moving from May estimates of 970 million bushels up to 990 million bushels.